The Global Calculator v23

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Display
- Summary
Costs of your pathway compared to the following counterfactual pathway:     How are costs calculated? How are costs calculated?

For more details please click here.
Display
- Cars - technology and fuel
- Mode
- Fuel type
- Freight by load
Greenhouse gas removal (GGR) technologies are very speculative and uncertain. In theory, these technologies could be viable, but there are significant technical, social or economic barriers to be overcome before they could be implemented.
                                           Technology
Negative emissions are also possible by burning biomass in power stations with carbon capture and storage - the user can approximate this by supplying bioenergy and choosing levels 2 - 4 for the 'carbon capture and storage' levers.
Display
- XX Temperature change over time
- XX Temperature change maps
- XX Precipitation change maps
- Ocean acidification
MODEL UNCERTAINTY
The principle of the greenhouse effect was first put forward in the 1800s by scientists including Joseph Fourier and Svante Arrhenius , who also noticed that our burning of fossil fuels would release carbon dioxide and warm the planet. Since then, this principle has been tested by scientists using laboratory experiments and computer simulations . These different approaches have demonstrated that our emissions of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide) will result in global net warming and therefore local changes to weather patterns.

We can calculate the extra energy trapped by the extra CO2 generated in your pathway, by using Arrhenius' formula for the rate of heat trapping, Q = 3.71 x ln (C/C_0) Joules of energy per square meter per second. The constant 3.71 comes from the latest IPCC report.
The order of magnitude impacts of your pathway are:
- the total amount of extra energy trapped due to human emissions of CO2 since 1870 is about XXXX by 2050 and XXXX by 2100;
- the fraction of this energy which falls on the ice sheets would be enough to melt XXXX of ice by 2100, which would cause about XXXXm of sea level rise. The fraction of this energy which falls on the ocean would cause it to expand, giving about an additional XXXXm of sea level rise. The total rise in sea level could therefore be XXXXm.
These are simple calculations using basic physics. These results are not taken from the more complex IPCC modelling.
These are "back of the envelope" calculations which don't involve the use of any climate models, just the basic physics of energy and heat transfer . To do this calculation, we've assumed that the fraction of emitted CO2 which goes into the atmosphere remains constant at about 0.44, but climate models suggest that this fraction is likely to increase for high-emission pathways. Change the atmospheric fraction lever to see how this influences your results.
Hover over
bubbles for
examples of
impacts
Events like these are becoming more likely as GHG emissions increase:
  1. Russian heatwave and wildfires, 2010
    Heatwave/wildfires in Russia, grain exports banned.
    Three-fold increase in risk of this magnitude event due to climate change.
    See news report | See news report | See paper

  2. Texas drought, 2011
    See news report | See news report | See paper

  3. Korean heatwave, 2013
    Heatwave and power shortages across East Asia.
    This event is 10 times more likely due to climate change.
    See news report | See news report | See paper
Display
- Land use
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Sharing this pathway with others

If you want to save or share your pathway, bookmark this page, or take note of this url:*



To share, just send someone the url.

* On various modern browsers, this url is the same as the one you will see in the address bar as you use the calculator. On older browsers, such as Internet Explorer 9, it will not be.
Sharing this pathway with the excel version of the Global Calculator

You may want to explore your pathway in more detail, taking a look at all the assumptions behind our modelling, by downloading the underlying Global Calculator Excel spreadsheet.

If you do, then you can recreate the pathway you have chosen in this tool by copying the numbers from the box below and pasting them in cells E7 to E66 on the 'User inputs' sheet of the workbook.
Use this box to copy
the actual pathway into the
Global Calculator Excel spreadsheet:
Set your output preferences
Energy:
Power:
Currency:
Documentation screen will be displayed here




Field 2011 2050
Your pathway
CFP 1
CFP 2
CFP 3
CFP 4
CFP 5
CFP 6
CFP 7
Emissions and temperature
GHG emissions (t CO2e) per capita
Cumulative emissions by 2100 (Gt CO2e)
Temperature change in 2100 (⁰C)
Demographics and long term
Population (billions of people)
% population in urban areas
Energy
Total energy supply (EJ / year)
Total energy demand (EJ / year)
Energy demand (kWh) per capita
Proportion of primary energy from fossil fuels
Bioenergy supply (EJ / year)
% of oil reserves (as of 2011) left in the ground
% of gas reserves (as of 2011) left in the ground
% of coal reserves (as of 2011) left in the ground
Electricity
Electricity demand (kWh) per capita
Wind capacity (GW)
Solar capacity (GW)
Nuclear capacity (GW)
Hydro-electric capacity (GW)
CCS for power (GW)
Unabated fossil fuel capacity (GW)
Storage capacity (GW)
Efficiency of unabated fossil fuel power generation
Efficiency of CCS fossil fuel power generation
Emissions intensity (global average g CO2e / kWh)
Transport
Number of passenger vehicles on the road (thousands)
% urban cars that are zero emission (electric/hydrogen)
Efficiency of urban ICE cars (lge per 100km)
Total passenger vehicle km travelled per capita
Total passenger vehicle km travelled per capita plus int
% of passenger km travelled using cars
(excludes international & plane travel)
Distance travelled per person by air (global average)
Domestic freight (Tonne km / capita)
International freight (Tonne km / capita)
Air freight (as % of international freight tonne-km)
Buildings
Number of appliances per household
Number of washing machines in an average urban household
Refrigerator average power (W) in urban areas
Building temperature in warm months (⁰C)
Building temperature in cold months (⁰C)
Home/building insulation (rate of heat loss in GW / M ha*℃)
% urban households using zero-carbon space heating (heat-pumps & solar)
% urban households that have access to electricity
Manufacturing
Iron, steel and aluminium output (Gt)
Paper and other output (Gt)
Chemicals output (Gt)
Cement output (Gt)
Timber output (Gt)
Global Oxygen steel technology (% decrease in energy demand from 2011)
Global Pulp & paper: Pulp technology (% decrease in energy demand from 2011)
Global Chemicals: High Value Chemicals technology (% decrease in energy demand from 2011)
Global Cement technology (% decrease in energy demand from 2011)
% of manufacturing emissions captured by CCS
Demand for consumer packaging (% of 2011 tonne demand)
Demand for electrical equipment (% of 2011 tonne demand)
Lifespan of refrigerator (years) in urban areas
Land
Crop yields (EJ per M ha)
Crop yields (W/m2)
Livestock yields for cows and other bovines (% increase from 2011 in non-intensive animal yields and carrying capacity of pasture)
% of productive land used for bioenergy
% of productive land used for commercial forestry
Food
Calories consumed per head (kcal / person / day)
Calories from meat (kcal / person / day)
Emissions saved
Emissions saved by speculative GHG removal technologies (Gt CO2e / year)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
By using the Global Calculator you are agreeing to be bound to its conditions of use.            Based on spreadsheet v.3.99.0.

Welcome to the Global Calculator

The Global Calculator is a model of the world's energy, land and food systems to 2050. It allows you to explore the world's options for tackling climate change and see how they all add up. With the Calculator, you can find out whether everyone can have a good lifestyle while also tackling climate change.



The default pathway you will see is "business as usual" if the world did nothing to tackle climate change (the "IEA 6DS approx.").

For more information and tips, see how to use tool.